Trump's Voters Are Not a Cult
What new data reveals about the coalition behind his second term (1,463 words / 6-minute read).
One year ago today, Donald Trump took the oath of office and began his second term as president. What do we know about the political coalition that returned him to the White House?
Two sets of elites want us to believe that the 77 million Americans who voted for Donald Trump in 2024, up from 63 million in 2016 and then 74 million in 2020, are marching in lockstep with the president.
For Trump and his most intense partisans, this projection helps them keep wavering GOP officials in line and counters any notion that the lame-duck president’s influence may now be starting to wane. It also helps Trump and his team troll their political opponents, baiting them into saying and doing self-defeating things.
Progressive elites, for their part, find that outrage against not only Trump but also those they regard as his electoral enablers helps them rally supporters and raise money from well-heeled and like-minded donors. And stoking fears of fascism deflects attention from progressive policies that have swollen the ranks of Trump’s supporters as working-class voters migrate out of the Democratic Party.
But what if Donald Trump has assembled not a cult but a coalition – one made up of different kinds of voters with distinct perspectives, interests, hopes, and fears? This is the central question raised by “Beyond MAGA: A Profile of the Trump Coalition,” a report from More in Common (a nonprofit whose U.S. board I chair). The report draws on six waves of surveys conducted over the past nine months with 18,371 Americans, including 10,971 Trump voters.
“Beyond MAGA” complicates prevailing narratives of a monolithic Trump base and points toward a potential political opening in the years ahead. Civil society leaders seeking to strengthen U.S. democracy, or to advocate effectively within it, would do well to take stock of its findings.
Here are the five big things I took away from the report:
1). There are four distinct groups of Trump voters.
More in Common identifies and sizes these segments within Trump’s 2024 coalition as follows, listed in descending order of alignment with the president.
“MAGA Hardliners [29%] represent the fiery core of Trump’s base. They are fiercely loyal, deeply religious, and animated by a sense that America is in an existential struggle between good and evil, with God firmly on their side.
Anti-Woke Conservatives [21%] are relatively well-off, politically engaged, and deeply frustrated by the perceived takeover of schools, culture, and institutions by the progressive left.
Mainline Republicans [30%] are middle-of-the-road conservatives who play by the rules and expect others to do the same. Most do not follow politics closely. For them, Trump’s strength is that he advances familiar conservative priorities: securing the border, keeping the economy strong, and preserving a sense of cultural stability.
The Reluctant Right [20%] is the most ambivalent cohort of Trump’s coalition, and the group most likely to have voted for Trump transactionally: the businessman who was “less bad” than the alternative. Many feel disconnected from national politics and believe politicians do not share their priorities.”
2). Most Trump voters are not enthralled by the man they voted for in 2024.
Only 38% report that “being MAGA” is an important part of their identity. More than one-third of Anti-Woke Conservatives and Mainline Republicans, and more than three-quarters of the Reluctant Right, see Trump as driven at least in part by personal gain. And while nearly three-quarters of Trump voters say they agree with him on politics more than any other public figure, fewer than one in four regard him as “the best American alive.”
3). At present, there is no compelling heir apparent to Trump.
As the above chart indicates, no other figure on the right comes close to Trump in the eyes of his voters. Ever the reality TV star, Trump leads as what Texas A&M political scientist Jennifer Mercieca calls a “spectacular demagogue,” albeit one with undeniable rhetorical gifts.
Can figures like JD Vance, Marco Rubio, or Elon Musk command similar influence? Can would-be Robins become Batman? Having subordinated themselves to Trump, with all of the compromises that has entailed, can they hold together an increasingly discordant coalition? Could any of Trump’s potential successors expand his coalition into a durable electoral majority in a way that he himself has never managed, despite his cunning and mastery of the dark arts of populism? Mark me down as skeptical.
4). Opponents have an opportunity to unwind the Trump coalition.
This is not only because Trump’s successors may struggle to replicate his political showmanship and his approval ratings at this point of his presidency sit below those of his first term as well as Joe Biden’s. The coalition he assembled in 2024 is inherently unstable.
The Reluctant Right, which makes up 20% of Trump’s voters, is especially conflicted. Only 51% identify as Republicans, compared with 70% among Trump’s other voters. Seventy-seven percent of the Reluctant Right believe that people on the left and right care equally about America, versus 40% of other Trump voters. Fewer than one in ten in this group agree that “President Trump is the best leader the Republican Party has had in my lifetime” or that “President Trump should punish his opponents for the damage they have done.”
The more Trump brags about his purported accomplishments and hounds his political enemies, the more he risks alienating this pivotal group. Only 41% of the Reluctant Right now say, “I still feel very or mostly confident in my choice” to vote for Trump, while 25% report that “I have some regrets or regret my choice entirely.”
5). Immigration policy is the linch-pin; can it be reset to enable a new majority?
In a special section on immigration, “Beyond MAGA” shows that Trump’s pledge to enforce federal immigration law played a critical role in his 2024 victory. But once again, the report complicates prevailing narratives. It documents a large and growing perception gap between what Trump’s voters believe about immigration and what their opponents think they believe. Fully 89% of Republicans surveyed in 2024 agreed that “properly controlled immigration can be good for America.” But Democratic and Independent respondents mistakenly perceived that only 43% of GOP voters would agree with that statement.
The distinction between legal and illegal immigration is key. As “Beyond MAGA” notes,
“A common perception is that Trump voters are largely motivated by a dislike of newcomers and immigrants in general. There is evidence to suggest otherwise. On [100 degree] thermometer score questions, Trump voters express the same level of warmth toward legal immigrants (71) as Americans do on average (72). In fact, on average, they feel greater warmth toward legal immigrants than they do toward members of MAGA (67). Yet their feelings toward illegal or undocumented immigrants are colder than the average Americans’ by 10 points or more. MAGA Hardliners (10) and Anti-Woke Conservatives (13) are particularly hostile toward these groups.”
Now we come to the rub – and the opportunity for a reshuffling of political coalitions. In its push for mass deportations, the Trump Administration is overplaying its hand. The deployment of masked, heavily armed, and thuggishly behaved federal agents to intimidate and detain non-citizens and citizens alike is steadily losing public support.
That said, the vanguard of opposition to the Administration’s immigration policy has some tough choices to make. Renewed calls to “Abolish ICE” may energize the progressive base and convey solidarity with those who lack the legal status to stay in the U.S. But it too is unlikely to be a winning strategy over the long run.
Ultimately, opponents of Trump who want to deflate his coalition and build an enduring majority of their own must make room for voters who currently support him with some reservations. More in Common asked these sets of voters to choose which of the following two statements they agreed with more:
“Patriotism means living up to American ideals, including being welcoming to immigrants”
“It’s patriotic to put the needs of Americans first when making immigration policy”
61% of the Reluctant Right and 69% of Mainline Conservatives chose the second option. If Democrats want someone other than Stephen Miller directing immigration policy every other administration, they should do likewise.
Do your own research – and looking ahead
These are the key things I took away from “Beyond MAGA.” By all means, dig in yourself and drop any reflections or disagreements you have in a comment below. As always, I could be wrong!
This report is the first of three that the team at More in Common will produce drawing on this rich trove of survey data. An overview of the electorate as a whole and then a deep dive into voters on the left are coming soon. I will pass them along with my reflections as they arrive.
Most people have no idea what is going on. They are fed disinformation that reinforces their biases while simultaneously the moneyed class is robbing them blind. Without access to the truth, and the cognitive skills to interpret it, voters will continue to support the most emotionally satisfying candidate rather than one who wants to actually help them.
Not all of them, but there is a hard core that absolutely is.